Migration Outflow in Monotowns of Kemerovo Region Studied by Methods of Mathematical Modelling: Integrated Approach

Abstract

Abstract The article deals with the problem of population migration as a factor affecting the prospects for the development of monotowns in Kemerovo region (by the example of Novokuznetsk - a monotown with a stable social and economic situation). One of the negative trends being observed in the monotowns of Kuzbass and determining their development is the growth of natural population decline and negative migration balance. The authors approach the solution of the problem posed from the standpoint of the mathematical theory of optimal processes. At the first stage, integrated assessments of social and environmental attractiveness of a mono-town for the population are constructed to analyze this problem. To find them, the process under investigation is decomposed and pre-sented as a hierarchical model. In the second stage, the dynamics of change in the resulting integrated assessments - environmental attractiveness, housing conditions, the effectiveness of health care and education system operation - is studied by methods of statistical analysis alongside with the impact produced on them due to changes in municipal budget expenditures of the urban district un-der consideration in various areas of financing: “National issues”, “National economy”, “Education”, “Culture, cinematography”, “Public health”, “Social policy”, “Environmental protection”. Based on the dependencies obtained, a model of optimal control is constructed that allows determining the effective distribution of budgetary funds in order to achieve the most favorable socio-ecological situation in a monotown. The proposed model can be used by mu-nicipal authorities in developing programs for the strategic development of monotowns.