Impact of climate change on wetland paddy yield in Indonesia: analysis from crop-cutting survey (Ubinan) results

Abstract

Abstract Our study aims to examine farmers’ perceptions of the impact of climate change on their wetland paddy yield in Indonesia. We analyse the results of the Crop-Cutting Survey or Ubinan conducted by BPS-Statistics Indonesia annually to measure the yield of food crops in Indonesia. Applying a logistic regression model to the microdata of the survey, we found that farmers experiencing the impact of climate change in the form of either drought or flood are more likely to experience a significant drop in the yield than those who did not experience those impacts. Moreover, the Kernel Density estimation plot of the yield pointed out that farmers experiencing the impact of climate change have lower harvest yields than those who did not face any impact of climate change. Our findings confirm the importance of climate change impact mitigation on wetland paddy cultivation in Indonesia. It is pivotal to maintain Indonesian food security since rice is still the main staple food for most parts of the country.