The bayesian model of Covid-19 case fatality rate proportion on provinces in Indonesia

Abstract

Abstract The Covid-19 pandemic has spread to all parts of Indonesia with different case fatality rates (CFR) between regions. The estimating parameter of the proportion of people who die compared to the number of people who test positive for coronavirus (parameter of CFR) can be determined using the Bayesian method approach. The estimation parameter of CFR is performed by using prior beta distribution, and the results have good performance with a high degree of accuracy. The choice of Bayesian model that can be built is a fixed effect model where the proportion of case deaths in each province is assumed to be mutually independent. Still, the movement of people between regions continues to occur so that a random effect model is more rational to be applied where the proportion of case deaths for each province is assumed to be the same as estimating parameter of CFR which is smaller than the current condition of Indonesia. The estimation parameter results of the CFR parameters are expected to be achieved by the Indonesian government by implementing Covid-19 controls system for each province as a mitigation diseases strategy.