Trends and forecasting of meat production and consumption in Indonesia: Livestock development strategies

Abstract

Abstract This article aims to discuss trends and forecast meat production and consumption for 2027 in Indonesia by using different statistical forecasting methods. Forecasting of meat production and consumption is important to be carried out so that food security development can be planned strategically in the future. Meat production and consumption are observed in the period from 1990 to 2017. The types of meat analyze including beef, poultry, sheep and pork. Based on the seasonality and trend data, the forecasting methods used are Double Exponential smoothing and Holt-Winters seasonal smoothing. All data is analyzed using STATA software. The accuracy of forecasting is examined based on the root mean squared error. Accordingly, the Double Exponential smoothing method is more accurate than the Holt-Winters seasonal smoothing method in predicting meat production and consumption for 2027 in Indonesia. Overall, meat production and consumption are projected to increase by 4,449,286 tonnes and 5,061,993 tonnes respectively. Hence, meat consumption is higher than meat production. Therefore, livestock technology innovation should be carried out thoroughly in the fields of breeding, processing/production, marketing and increasing the capacity of human resources both farmers and extension workers to produce livestock products efficiently and effectively.