Forecasting of Air Maximum Temperature on Monthly Basis Using Singular Spectrum Analysis and Linear Autoregressive Model

Abstract

Abstract In this research, the singular spectrum analysis technique is combined with a linear autoregressive model for the purpose of prediction and forecasting of monthly maximum air temperature. The temperature time series is decomposed into three components and the trend component is subjected for modelling. The performance of modelling for both prediction and forecasting is evaluated via various model fitness function. The results show that the current method presents an excellent performance in expecting the maximum air temperature in future based on previous recordings.