Modeling and assessing the effectiveness of investment projects in the agricultural sector

Abstract

Abstract The problems of complementarity of the subordinate elements of the system of modeling and improving the mathematical accuracy of assessing the effectiveness of capital-intensive and long-term investment projects in the agricultural sector are presented. The solution to the problem of strict interdependence of model blocks is to create a rearrangeable and complemented cognitive optimization system for the target base center. The model consists of eight blocks, four of which are resource modeling blocks, and four are organizational and economic modeling blocks. The basis of the target base center is a cognitive system based on the work of the stochastic and deterministic method, which allows smoothing out complementarity and at the same time not going beyond the boundaries of established efficiency. In an unsteady economy, investment analysis must take into account the factors that change the value of money over time, uncertainty and risk. This requires a comprehensive and systematic analysis based on the logical and mathematical concept of the time value of money and discounting when forming the appraisal apparatus of investment projects. The principle of a logical and mathematical concept is proposed, which consists in the fact that only the accumulated amount can be discounted, not the capital gain. Arguments are presented in favor of the fact that it is mathematically incorrect to compensate for the effect of inflation, risk and the alternative cost of capital on cash flows of a real investment project by discounting cash inflows.