Multi-scenario generation technology considering extreme scenarios in energy system modeling

Abstract

Abstract In energy system planning and modeling, due to the increase in the proportion of renewable energy, its volatility and randomness require that the energy planning model be more detailed. Generally, typical scenarios are used to simulate changes in annual timing characteristics, so the generation of typical scenarios is particularly important. The characterization of the scenario requires that the generated scenario is representative and complete at the same time, and completeness requires the extreme scenarios should be considered. Extreme scenario-based energy system stress tests not only help policymakers consider previously overlooked stress or stress sources but also assess the potential extent of their impact and the affordability of these risks to energy systems, while also giving effective coping strategies.