Spatial Dynamics Model of Earthquake Prone Area in Ambon City

Abstract

Abstract Ambon City has limitations in the development of residential areas because it is in an area prone to earthquake disasters, This is because Ambon City is in a very active tectonic area and 65% of settlement land / land built in Ambon City is in an active and weak fault zone and if there is a plate movement there will be an earthquake along the weak zone. One of the first steps to the effort to stigmatize disasters is to estimate how large the area of settlements that have been analyzed using cellular automata markov-chain located in earthquake-prone areas. This study aims to analyze changes in Ambon city land cover in 2012, 2017, 2021 and predict land cover in 2031 and synthesize spatial dynamics of settlement land availability with earthquake-prone areas in Ambon City in 2021 and 2031. This study uses Cellular Automata modeling to predict ambon city land cover in 2031 which will be covered with a map of earthquake-prone areas obtained from BPBD Ambon City to see residential areas that are in earthquake prone areas in Ambon City in 2021 and 2031. The results showed that the area of built land affected in earthquake-prone areas has a straight proportional relationship with the year of land development built. So that the more years then the area of land is built in areas prone to earthquakes and increasing. This research is expected to be used as a reference in the management of sustainable settlement area development and for efforts to organize space based on disaster mitigation in order to minimize losses and casualties due to earthquake disasters that will occur in Ambon City in this future.