Quantitative Assessment of Arctic Geoeconomic Space Development

Abstract

Abstract The article presents a method for quantifying the development of the Arctic geoeconomic space by different countries. The Arctic reserves are estimated at 10-15% of the world’s reserves as two main studies – USGS (2008) and Wood Mackenzie and Fug Robertson (2006) – show. The resources are mainly concentrated on the shelf (about 85%), with 80% of the resources being gas resources. Of the five states bordering the Arctic, Russia has more than half of all undiscovered reserves. The observed melting of ice due to warming makes real plans for their development, which turns the Arctic zone into a leading strategic resource base. In the conducted research, the Arctic space is divided into the following areas: demographic; innovation and technology; environmental; production and markets; social; manufacturing. The indicators that evaluate these areas are presented. For each of the eight Arctic countries, baseline data on indicators for the period of 2006-2018 were collected. The indices for each country for each year indicator in every area were calculated on the basis of the initial statistical data. The indices are calculated as the arithmetic average of the partial indicators for each year indicator that characterizes each of the listed areas. The areas under consideration are ranked by significance and each sphere is assigned weight coefficients. The proposed formula for the integral index has the form: II = 0,125* I1 + 0,25* I2 + 0,25* I3 + 0,125* I4 + 0,125* I5 + 0,125* I6. The results of the analysis by all areas are presented.