Long-term forecast of forest ecosystem services under different forest use scenarios

Abstract

Abstract Sustainable forest management presupposes a long-term strategic planning of status and use of all forest resources and ecosystem services. The results of long-term scenario modelling can form the basis for decision-making. The paper contains the discussion of the results of scenario modelling run with the FORRUS-S imitational model for the period of 125 years and the rent forest plot with the area of 19,800 ha. Three scenarios of management activities differing in volumes of harvested timber, reforestation, and thinning were implemented. The effect of forest use scenarios on tree species composition, structural indices of forest ecosystems, volumes of food resources, and recreational potential was examined. The scenario envisaging a complete use of permissible harvesting volume and reforestation with no thinnings proved to be the most disastrous for aforementioned ecosystem services, including timber harvesting. The intensive forest use scenario envisaging artificial reforestation and complete cycle of thinnings causes the least negative effect on the volumes of food resources and even increases their diversity. Recreational ecosystem services degrade with increasing intensity of forest use. As a result, the forest user receives several scenarios; the choice of the optimal one for the user depends on the demand for concrete resources or ecosystem services.