Assessment and Forecasting of Human Resource Development in the Region considering Re-emigration Processes in the Context of Geopolitical Transformations

Abstract

Abstract Human resources research is always relevant, as their development is almost continuous. This work is dedicated to addressing issues related to the assessment, development, and strengthening of the human component of productive forces. A particular emphasis is placed on population replenishment through re-emigration. However, such programs have a nationwide scope and do not take into account the difficulties that regional leaders encounter when implementing such programs locally. Regions that receive migrants often face challenges such as housing shortages, limited space in childcare facilities and schools, and the potential strain on public transportation, as well as overloaded government services, and more. This occurs precisely because there is no forecasting of changes in the volume and structure of human resources, even in the short term. In the context of geopolitical transformations, making long-term predictions is not advantageous. Therefore, a simplified system for assessing the development of human resources, which, unlike others, considers the intensity of human resource outflows and migration processes, becomes relevant. This is why the purpose of this work is to create a mathematical model that will allow for the evaluation and prediction of the development of human resources. To achieve this goal, the author has decided on several tasks: building a mathematical model for evaluating the development of human resources, taking into account immigration and re-emigration growth, and developing coefficients for assessing the implementation of re-emigration stimulation programs.