Abstract
Abstract
Alien tube worms have been introduced outside their original distribution areas via international shipping and have become invasive in these areas. Climate change has been acknowledged to redistribute both native and alien species; however, the effect of climate change on the global distribution of alien tube worms is unknown. This study predicts the global distribution patterns of alien tube worms (Hydroides elegans, Sabella spallanzanii, and Ficopomatus enigmaticus) and projects how climate change influences these patterns using species distribution modelling. Sea surface temperature, salinity, primary productivity, phosphate, nitrate, and current velocity are selected as the predictors. The models predict species occurrences well, with AUC values greater than 0.95. Under the present climate scenario, the occurrence probability of alien tube worms is high (>0.9) within the temperate Atlantic Ocean, Persian Gulf, Sea of Japan, Yellow Sea, Southern China, and Southern Australia. The probability of occurrence is expected to increase across oceans by 2100, suggesting that alien tube worms will be more common in the future. Increases in occurrence probability are also projected at higher latitudes (e.g., Barents Sea) by 2100, indicating poleward shifts of these species. This study highlights the urgency of incorporating climate change into the management of alien invasive species.