Influence of precipitation variability and temperature conditions on the yield of grain crops in Northern Kazakhstan

Abstract

Abstract The article considers the influence of climate variability (precipitation and air temperature) on the yield of grain crops in Northern Kazakhstan. The paper uses data from some weather stations in the Northern regions of Kazakhstan, located in the main grain-growing zone. Because of the research, the dependence of grain yield on temperature and humidity for specific years of the last decades has been revealed. With an increase in precipitation, there is an increase in productivity in the North Kazakhstan and Kostanay regions, and the decrease in precipitation has a greater impact on the decrease in productivity in the Akmola and Pavlodar regions. Using the regression equation, the dependence of grain yield on the variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Akmola region (for the Esil weather station), a retrospective analysis was performed with the restoration of yield values for 1969-2019. The results of comparing the restored and the true (actual) yield showed a good correlation-0.84, which confirmed the reliability of the values. There are quite close relationships between the decrease in yield at high summer temperatures with reduced humidity, and the increase in yield at low summer temperatures, which is typical for the steppe and forest-steppe regions of Northern Kazakhstan. The yield of grain crops in the Akmola region, in the area of the Esil weather station, was affected by 72% by moisture, and 28% by other factors.