Prediction of summer precipitation change in the middle 21st century (2021-2050) of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on the MPI-ESM-MR/RegCM4 Model

Abstract

Abstract The Regional Climate Model RegCM4.5 driven by the MPI-ESM-MR was used to predict the summer precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the middle of the 21st century (2021-2050) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results showed that under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the average annual summer precipitation in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Qilian Mountains increased significantly, while the western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau decreased significantly, and the interannual variation trend of the summer precipitation was not significant. In the future, the summer precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has significant diurnal variation patterns and spatial differences between east and west regions. Specifically, summer precipitation decreases during daytime, while it increases slightly during night, especially in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. At the same time, the increase in the probability of precipitation intensity above 10mm/day in the eastern of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau means that the probability of extreme precipitation in the future may increase, while the precipitation intensity below 10mm/day is slightly reduced.