Additional insights to EC7 from the application of reliability-based design methods: the case of debris flow protection structures

Abstract

Abstract Debris flows are dangerous natural processes that cause extensive damages to infrastructures and urbanized areas and can lead to loss of human lives. Their unpredictability, their extremely high motion and their magnitude are the main causes of these harms. Mitigation measures are fundamental for reducing the associated risk and protecting infrastructures in mountainous areas. Their design is still an open issue: there are many formulations to evaluating impact pressure. Moreover, the uncertainties in the determination of flow characteristics (velocity and thickness) are significantly high and difficult to quantify. In the European Union, the design of any type of structures involved in rock mechanics field must comply with EN-1997 Geotechnical Design (CEN 2004) (EC7). For debris flow countermeasures, EC7 requirements are very difficult to apply in practice since partial safety factors are not provided for these phenomena. However, the basic philosophy of reliability-based design (RBD), as defined in EN1990 (CEN 2002) may be a suitable and complementary approach to provide geotechnical structures with a uniform probability of failure. Reliability Based Design (RBD) can provide additional insights to EC7 design and can be applied when partial factors have still to be proposed (by EC7) to cover uncertainties of less common parameters, as in case of debris flow countermeasures. This paper presents an analysis of the advantages and limitations on the applicability of RBD approach to debris flow countermeasures, by using the first-order reliability method (FORM). In particular, data availability, the possibilities for analysing data in a statistical framework and the choice of performance function are the main limitation of the method, which force to make assumptions regarding statistical distribution of the considered parameters. A sensitivity analyses, comparing different equations, commonly used for debris flow impact pressure estimation, were performed for quantifying the effect of the selected performance function on the RBD results.