Methods and results of long-term strong earthquakes forecast in the Uzbekistan territory

Abstract

Abstract An approach to evaluate the current seismological situation in the Uzbekistan territory is presented. This approach is based on the regularities of seismic processes in strong-earthquake focal areas and the manifestation peculiarities of strong earthquakes in seismically active zones. At the first stage, within seismically active zones, areas with a high seismic activity matching the strong earthquake level were identified during the historical and instrumental observation periods. Considering the low variability in the direction of seismotectonic processes over tens and hundreds of years, which determines the modern stress state of seismically active structures, these areas were considered the most likely areas to experience strong earthquakes over the next few decades. Tectonophysical validation of the division of seismically active zones into areas with different potential hazards of strong earthquakes was carried out within the framework of cataclastic analysis method of rupture dislocations (CAM). At the second stage, temporal fluctuations in seismic regime parameters within the selected areas were studied. Based on the number of current anomalous features identified, the areas were ranked according to the occurrence probability of strong earthquakes over the next few years.