Towards an eco-industrial development in West Papua economy

Abstract

Abstract West Papua province holds a crucial role to ensure the NDC target could be achieved in a measurable and timely manner. Despite its rich possession of pristine biodiversity, manufacture industry contributes 3% of the total provincial income. This study aims to predict the GRDP if West Papua incorporates Eco-Industrial Development (EID) to mitigate emissions from the industrial sector and its shares to the local community’s economy and the global economy. System dynamic modelling was employed to simulate and project the scenarios. The results show that the GRDP projection under the BAU scenario will rise from about 1,200 billion IDR in 2010 to 2,500 billion IDR in 2030, in parallel with the gradual increase of GHGs emission to 72,000 tonCO2e. The intervention scenario shows that the emissions will reach 57,000 tonCO2e and the economic contraction to 2,000 billion IDR by 2030. Considering the intermediate input, the added benefit for local communities in 2030 could fall from 840 billion IDR to 670 billion IDR in the intervention scenario. The contribution to the outer region’s economy could decrease from 230 to 180 billion IDR. Besides the benefit of EID to reduce emissions, the government should also consider the impact of economic contraction.