Prediction of land cover change in the Belawan watershed using the cellular automata-markov chain model

Author:

Slamet B,Nababan A M,Anggraini N

Abstract

Abstract Belawan Watershed is one of the watersheds that cross Medan City, the capital of North Sumatra province. The spatial distribution of land cover affects the hydrological conditions in this watershed. The purpose of this study is to predict land cover in 2032 so that it can be used as information to mitigate changes in forest land cover. The method used is Cellular Automata-Markov Chain modeling with five change parameters (driving factors): distance from the river, distance from the road, altitude, population density, and slope. Land cover changes in the Belawan watershed used for this modeling include land cover in 2012, 2017, and 2022 and predicted land cover in 2032. The results showed that the predicted land cover is the water body 998.409 ha (1.36%), dryland forest 970.399 ha (1.32%), mangrove forest 3,351.496 ha (4.58%), settlement 11,600.105 ha (15.85%), plantation 38,787.924 ha (53.01%), agriculture 8,674.632 ha (11.85%), rice fields 5,568.183 ha (7.6%) and ponds 3,218.175 ha (4.3%). The area of forests and mangroves tends to continue to decline, so mitigation efforts are needed to reduce the reduction rate in forest and mangrove land cover.

Publisher

IOP Publishing

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3