Forecasting the production of agricultural machinery in the Russian Federation

Abstract

Abstract The article examines the production of agricultural machinery in the Russian Federation for the period from 2000 to 2020. The aim of the work is to develop a forecast for the production of the main types of agricultural machinery in the Russian Federation in modern conditions. Within the framework of this, the following tasks are supposed to be solved: - study of the availability of agricultural machinery for domestic agricultural producers; - identification of trends in the development of agricultural machinery production; - construction of econometric models that describe the volume of agricultural machinery produced. The information base of the study was the data of the Federal State Statistics Service. The study used statistical methods, in particular Student’s t-test. The null hypothesis about the presence of a systemic shift in the time series was tested using a dummy variable. The index of production potential was also used in the work. Calculations showed the presence of a systemic shift in the series of the studied indicators. Econometric models were built for each series. For the production of tractors and loaders for agricultural purposes, the model will have a mixed look. Combine production is characterized by quadratic functions. Based on the models obtained, the production of the main types of agricultural machinery in the Russian Federation for the period 2021–2023 was predicted.