Cross-sectoral analysis on the implication of ASEAN road transport electrification policies on energy security and climate

Abstract

Abstract Road fleet electrification is one of the key strategies of the ASEAN region in decarbonizing the transportation sector. Electric vehicles (EVs) are seen to be more efficient compared to their conventional counterpart. Moreover, reduce pollution and emission which results in negative externalities like respiratory deceases and global warming. This study aims to perform a cross-sectoral analysis of the implication of ASEAN road transport electrification policies on energy security, climate, and societal welfare. Results show that ASEAN could reach 641 million passenger vehicles by 2050, and the implementation of ASEAN countries’ EV targets increases the penetration of technologies up to 9% penetration in both private cars and buses, 13% in motorcycles, and 4% in taxicabs. Significant petroleum savings can be expected with the deployment of e-vehicles but would increase end-user electricity demand. As the region could remain highly dependent on fossil-based power generation considering the historical trend in electricity dispatch, it was found that EV deployment could rather result in GHG being emitted than mitigated. However, the technology use could still result in significant pollutants reduction improving urban health and welfare. Thus, social cost savings could be expected with the implementation of ASEAN road transport electrification policies.