Algorithm for a Forecast Assessment of Negative Changes in Underground Water in the Territory of Non-Centralized Water Supply

Abstract

Abstract The water quality of non-centralized water supply sources largely depends on the presence of active karst processes. Underground waters of karst origin are a vulnerable component of the geological environment to the influence of modern anthropogenic factors that violate natural hydrogeological and geoecological conditions. One of the indicators of the development of karst processes is the level of river runoff and mineralization of underground water. The results of the analysis of these data make it possible to increase the efficiency of geoecological monitoring systems and to increase the accuracy of forecast estimates of negative changes in groundwater in the territory of non-centralized water supply. When processing heterogeneous spatial data, it is proposed to identify anomalous deviations of parameters. An algorithm has been developed that determines the critical states of karst water vulnerability indicators. A system of equations has been compiled to find the necessary value of the indicators of vulnerability of karst waters, at which the state of underground water passes into a critical state. The paper analyzes data on the salt content and electrical conductivity of groundwater at key points and the number of karst dips. Preliminary hydrogeological work was carried out to determine the conditions of movement of karst waters associated with the lithological heterogeneity of the massif and the degree of karst formation. The results obtained can be used to improve the regional model for assessing the resources of vulnerability and protection of groundwater and forecast the activation of destructive karst processes.