Analysis of Characteristic of Meteorological Variables in Golmud, China during 1955-2015 and Prediction of its Future Change

Abstract

Abstract Global warming and its impact on socio-economic and eco-environment in the more drought-prone regions have attracted great attention. Arid regions account for about 30% of the total China’s land area, which are quite sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. The annual trends of three meteorological variables were analyzed in Golmud City during 1955-2015. The linear regression, cumulative anomaly and R/S methods were used to determine the characteristics of the meteorological variables. The Morlet wavelet transforms method was employed to detect the dynamic periodic features of the meteorological variables. The results were obtained as follows: 1) the significant increasing trends were indicated in both temperatures (0.5°C/10a, p<0.01) and precipitation (3.3mm/10a, p<0.05), the decreasing trend in evaporation (118.4mm/10a, p>0.05). This states that the climate of Golmud City was turned from cold-dry to warm-wet. 2) The Hurst indexes of each annual variable were all greater than 0.5, it suggested that there would be obvious Hurst phenomenon in the future. 3) The wavelet analysis revealed that the temperature, precipitation, evaporation, had the periods of 12-14a, 7-9a, 11-12a oscillations, respectively. 4) According to the analysis results by synthesis we can predict that there will still keep the warming and increasing trend of temperature and precipitation in the future. In general, the results of using the Mann-Kendall and R/S proved the good consistency in detection of the trend for temperature and precipitation. This study can be used as a reference for further analysis of climate as well as the impacts of climate change. More importantly it can provide theoretical support for context-specific plan for water resources development and agricultural and animal husbandry production in Golmud City.