Neural network model of investment process of biogas production

Abstract

Abstract The paper forms a neural network model of the investment process of biogas production, which allows increasing the efficiency of the management decision-making process on the feasibility of investing in biogas plants. Biogas plants are becoming widespread in the world, although natural climatic conditions are not favorable for biogas production. But modern technological solutions for insulation of bioreactors, their automation and thermal stabilization, allow obtaining biogas in different latitudes. The construction of biogas plants requires significant capital investment. Therefore, these investments require a detailed feasibility study, including consideration of both technical and economic aspects of biogas production. The authors propose to use the mathematical apparatus of shallow neural networks and create a ten-neuron shallow neural mathematical model with the MATLAB mathematical package, which can serve as a tool to support investment decisions in the implementation of the biogas plant project. The proposed model, in contrast to existing approaches, allows us to take into account both quantitative and qualitative factors, which are obtained analytically, expertly and experimentally. In addition, the proposed model allows combining both economic and technical criteria that affect the decision-making process for investing in the process of biogas production. The calculation of investment attractiveness of introduction of biogas utilization unit for the researched enterprise is given. According to the simulation results, it is determined that the investment attractiveness of the introduction of a biogas plant for the given set of input factors indicates the feasibility of implementing a biogas plant.