Selection of noise models for GNSS coordinate time series based on model averaging algorithm

Abstract

Abstract In the field of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) time series noise analysis, appropriately modeling the noise components plays an important role in determining the velocity of GNSS sites and quantifying the uncertainty associated with the velocity estimation. Over the years, researchers have focused on only one optimal noise model, while other noise models that show similar performance to the optimal model have been ignored. We investigated whether these ignored noise models can be made use of to describe the noise in the GNSS time series after applying a model averaging algorithm. The experimental data were derived from 28 International GNSS Service (IGS) sites in the California region of the United States and 110 IGS sites worldwide. The results showed that for the GNSS time series of 28 IGS sites in the California, 79%, 68%, and 75% of the site components can be applied the model averaging algorithm in the east/north/up (E/N/U) directions, respectively. Based on it, the east direction showed the best performance, with 50% of the site components obtaining more conservative velocity uncertainty after applying the model averaging algorithm compared to the optimal noise model. For GNSS time series of 110 IGS stations worldwide, the model averaging algorithm demonstrates excellent performance in all the E/N/U directions. In the E/N/U directions, 86%, 94%, and 57% of the site components can apply the model averaging algorithm. Building upon this, 77%, 65%, and 62% of the site components achieve more conservative velocity uncertainty in the E/N/U directions compared to the optimal noise model. To fully validate the feasibility of the model averaging algorithm, we also tested GNSS time series of varying lengths and different thresholds of the model averaging algorithm. In summary, the model averaging algorithm performs exceptionally well in the noise analysis of GNSS time series. It helps prevent overly optimistic estimation results.