Remaining useful life prediction based on time-series features and conformalized quantile regression

Abstract

Abstract The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a key task in the field of prognostics and health management (PHM) and plays a crucial role in preventive maintenance tasks. Traditional prediction methods have mostly focused on point prediction issues, neglecting the uncertain factors in the prediction task, thus failing to ensure the credibility of the prediction. In light of this, this paper focuses on improving the accuracy of point prediction models for RUL and interval prediction issues, proposing the introduction of multi-scale convolutional neural networks (MCNN), decomposed time-sequential linear layers (DL), and conformal quantile regression (CQR) techniques into the RUL prediction task of aero engines. The aim is to provide timely and accurate failure warnings for aero-engines, effectively ensure their reliability and safety, and reduce maintenance costs throughout their life cycle. In response to the limitations of current point prediction models in capturing the temporal features of life data, a MCNN-DL-based RUL prediction model is proposed to capture life data’s long-term trends and local variations for precise point predictions. Furthermore, an interval estimation approach for RUL is presented, which integrates the MCNN-DL model with CQR to account for prediction uncertainty. Finally, the method in this paper is verified using the commercial modular aero-propulsion system simulation (CMAPSS) dataset, and the results show that the method has achieved excellent results in both RUL point prediction and interval prediction tasks.