Contribution of the intensity of intraseasonal oscillation to the interannual variation of tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific

Abstract

Abstract The present study compares the contributions of seasonal, intraseasonal, and synoptic variations of environmental factors, i.e., mid-level moisture, vertical instability, and lower-level relative vorticity, to the interannual variation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) during July-August-September-October (JASO) of 1979–2015. It is found that the TC genesis frequency has a significant positive correlation with the intensity of intraseasonal oscillation, but a weak correlation with the intensity of synoptic variation of environmental factors during JASO in the WNP. In addition, the intraseasonal components of convection and lower-level vorticity at the location of TC genesis have a larger contribution than the interannual and synoptic components to the differences between more and less TC years over the WNP. The present results indicate that the intensity of intraseasonal oscillation of environmental factors has an important effect on the interannual variation of the TC genesis frequency over the WNP. This study enhances our understanding of the impacts of intraseasonal oscillation on the interannual variation of the WNP TC activity and indicates that the intensity of intraseasonal oscillation has the potential to be used in the seasonal prediction of the WNP TC genesis.