Improved land monitoring to assess large-scale tree plantation expansion and trajectories in Northern Mozambique

Abstract

Abstract Tree planting has the potential to address a wide range of environmental and economic challenges. However, planting initiatives can also do more harm than good. Characteristics such as land tenure and land use before conversion to tree plantation are key to assessing the potential risks and benefits of tree planting initiatives. Here, we present a new remote sensing technique to distinguish tree plantations from natural forests, measure plantation expansion, and specify pre-conversion land use. Focusing on Northern Mozambique, we found that 70% of large-scale tree plantation expansion between 2001–2017 occurred on cropland, while the remainder occurred on natural forest and grasslands. We also compare our remote sensing-derived plantation data with government cadastral records. Over 40% of plantation expansion occurred on lands not legally designated for this land use. Where tree plantation expansion is intended to mitigate climate change mitigation and boost rural economies, improved land monitoring techniques are needed to support assessment of the climate- and socio-economic impacts of expansion. The remote sensing technique presented here can support such assessments, increase transparency and facilitate adaptive management.