The possible impact of human activity and climate change on the potential suitable habitats of Taxus wallichianavar.mairei (Taxaceae) evaluated by ensemble modeling techniques

Abstract

Abstract In the current work, we examined the possible changes in potential suitable habitats of Taxus wallichiana var. mairei (Taxaceae) under the influence of human activity and climate change using ensemble modeling techniques. T. wallichiana var. mairei is an endangered subtropical coniferous evergreen tree and is often used in medical applications. It is mainly distributed in southern China and has experienced several degenerations due to human activity in recent decades. Its growth is also very sensitive to climate change. The area of its highly suitable habitat under current climate conditions was approximately 2.31 × 106 km2, as estimated by our ensemble models, accounting for 81.85% of its total suitable habitat. The ensemble model results showed that the mean diurnal range (bio2) was the most critical environment variable affecting the performance of the ensemble models. Human activity had an overall negative influence on the suitable habitats of T. wallichiana var. mairei under current climate conditions. Under the influence of future climate change, the ensemble model predicted that the highly suitable habitat would convert to low- to medium-suitability or be lost, with the predicted loss of highly suitable habitat at the end of this century ranging from 30.40% to 96.55%. The predicted changes were more intense with increases in the severity of global warming. In addition, the ensemble model also predicted a shift in the distribution of total suitable habitats toward higher elevations. The results of this study should provide information for conservation purposes.