The effect of flood experience on public preferences for land preservation: evidence from referendum votes

Abstract

Abstract In response to losses of open space, local open space referenda have become a popular means for land preservation in the U.S. This study is the first to empirically examine the relationship between flood experience and voter support for open space referenda. We collect data on open space referenda between 2001 to 2015 from the Trust for Public Land’s (TPL) LandVote database. Flood occurrence and damage data are derived from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS) database. Our findings suggest that voters become less supportive of subsequent open space ballot measures if their communities recently experienced a flood event. Our preferred specification indicates that a flood would decrease the odds of a ‘yes’ vote by about 7.5%. If we use flood damage data to measure disaster impacts, our results show that a 10% increase in flood damage is expected to decrease the odds of a ‘yes’ vote by about 6%. These findings are consistent with recent experimental research showing that disaster exposure has a negative effect on preferences for local public good investments.