Predicting vegetation dynamics in Deux Balé National Park, Burkina Faso, using land change modeler

Abstract

Abstract In recent years, the natural vegetation of Burkina Faso has undergone unprecedented anthropisation. To date, most studies have focused only on diachronic analysis based on satellite imagery. Land use dynamics studies give an account of the past and present situation, but do not provide quantitative and qualitative information on the future of this vegetation. On the other hand, a prospective analysis of the dynamics would enable us to better assess the future of our forest ecosystems. Predictive data are essential for decision-making and implementing appropriate policy responses relating to sustainable forest resources management. The main objective of this study was to predict the vegetation dynamics of the Deux Balé National Park by modelling the year 2025. Thus, we selected the variables that best explained the anthropization process. A land change model was selected for the study. The model was calibrated using only variables with a V-Cramer coefficient greater than or equal to 0.1. This model is based on error budgeting and prediction. Visual and statistical comparisons of the simulated and actual 2016 maps allowed for better calibration of the model to simulate changes in the area of land-cover classes by 2025. The results revealed that, between 2016 and 2025, a significant regression of savanna vegetation will occur in favor of anthropized areas and gallery forests. Thus, from this period, gallery forests and anthropized areas covered up to 138 ha and 2914 ha, respectively. However, the savanna vegetation area decreased by 1186 ha, 961 ha, and 893 ha from 2016 to 2025, respectively. Therefore, urgent action must be taken to preserve the potential of the forest resources in parks.