Future changes in precipitation over the upper Yangtze River basin based on bias correction spatial downscaling of models from CMIP6

Abstract

Abstract Global climate change will change the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, as well as the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. The Yangtze River basin is one of the world’s largest basins, and understanding the future precipitation changes should be vital to flood control, water resources supply, and hydropower electricity generation in this basin. In this study, projected future characteristics of precipitation are analyzed in the upper Yangtze river basin (UYRB). To this end, based on the observed data from national meteorological stations, the bias correction spatial downscaling (BCSD) of five models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is carried out. Then, based on the results of multi model ensemble (MME), we find that, relative to the historical period (1988–2014), the mean annual precipitation in the whole UYRB during 2015–2064 increases by 4.23%, 1.11%, 1.24% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, respectively, and it increases more in the long term (2040-2064) than that in the near term (2015–2039). Under SSP1–2.6, the precipitation will increase more significantly, which means lower emission of aerosols and greenhouse gases may increase the risk of flood disaster in the future over the UYRB. Interdecadal precipitation variability is more intense than interannual precipitation variability. Future precipitation changes in four seasons are spatially heterogeneous under three scenarios. Three extreme precipitation indices, including R95p, Rx1day and R10 mm, generally increase in the UYRB. R95p and Rx1day increase more in the WR and YBYCR basins with relatively high mean annual precipitation than that in other three sub-basins. R10 mm changes slightly in all sub-basins. The results reveal that the lower region of the UYRB may face greater risk of extreme precipitation. This study provides a timely updated finding about future changes in precipitation in the UYRB based on more accurate climate projections and ground-based observation.