Prediction of suitable areas and division of key monitoring zones for Solidago canadensis in Guizhou Province, China

Abstract

Abstract Comprehending invasive alien species’ potential habitat area and spread trend are of great importance for effective prevention and control strategy and prevention of spread. However, previous studies have mainly been based on large regional scales (national or global level). Research on the smaller regional scale of ecologically fragile karst makes the prevention and control measures more feasible and targeted, it is of great significance to protect mountainous region species diversity and maintain national nature reserves. In this study, based on the distribution point data of Solidago canadensis in Guizhou Province and environmental factors, Pearson correlation analysis and contribution rate analysis of environmental factors were carried out by SPSS and knife cutting method, and current and future potential distribution vector maps were obtained by MaxEnt model, and then imported into ArcGIS for reclassification and visualization. The results show that, (1) the main drivers of S canadensis distribution were precipitation changes and human activities, the total contribution rate more than 70%; (2) S canadensis occurrence probability initially increased, and then decreased with increased precipitation variables, and increased rapidly initially, then gradually with increasing human footprint; (3) under current climate conditions, S canadensis suitable area is 8.13 × 104 km2, with the highly suitable area concentrated in Guiyang, east of Bijie, Zunyi, Anshun and Qiannan. Under climate conditions of the 2050s, the suitable area drops slightly to 8.00 × 104 km2, mainly in the west and north of Zunyi, Anshun and other areas reduced. Under climate conditions of the 2070s, the suitable area expands to 8.31 × 104 km2, it expands in the adjacent areas of Anshun, Qiannan and Qianxinan and the junction of Zunyi, Tongren, Qiannan and Qiandongnan. And move toward the south within the study area; (4) finally, using the spatial optimization software ZONATION, according to the landscape loss proportion curve, the key monitoring area of 79,857 km2 was obtained, including a primary monitoring area mainly distributed in Guiyang, east of Bijie, northeast of Anshun and northwest of Qiannan, a secondary monitoring area mainly outside the primary monitoring area, and a third-level monitoring area widely distributed in Zunyi, Tongren, Qiannan, west of Qiandongnan and Anshun and east of Bijie. Linking our results with this specie’s invasive power, we thus recommended to increase the prevention and control sites in the first-level monitoring area, and continue to pay attention to the risk of the southward spread of this species.