Analyzing land use land cover (LULC) changes induced by the run-of river project and respondent survey: a case of Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project on Indus River, Pakistan

Abstract

Abstract Land use land cover (LULC) change determination caused by development projects is always mandatory as land is the major source of local livelihoods and regional economy. Worldwide, very limited studies have been conducted to determine LULC changes caused by run-of-the-river projects, which are generally considered safe due to their design. Present study used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to examine the LULC changes caused by Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Project (GBHP), which is a run-of-the-river project, built in 2002 on Indus River in Pakistan. The project diverts river water from Ghazi barrage, for a 6,600 GWh annual power production, through an open concrete power channel of 100 m width and 9 m depth. Field surveys were carried out to assess respondents’ opinions about LULC changes and their major causes. LULC determination was carried out from 1990–2020 through processing Landsat images in GEE, and Random Forest (RF) machine learning technique was used for supervised classification of the study area. 384 respondents were consulted during the field survey and their responses were collected using semi-structured self-administered proformas. Results showed that after functioning, GBHP caused major LULC changes in project downstream areas from 2002–2010, as there was a significant decrease in area under agriculture by 29.10% and 47%, during summer and winter seasons respectively. The trend was concurrent with a decrease in area under water and was also followed by a marked increase in area under vegetation and baresoil. However, from 2010–2020, agriculture area again increased by 75.61% and 84.53% in summer and winter seasons respectively, as compared to 2002–2010. Respondents during the field survey revealed that agriculture reduction from 2002–2010 was due to water scarcity caused by GBHP; also leading to vegetation and baresoil increase. Recovery of agriculture from 2010–2020 was attributed to groundwater development intervention, better seeds, and farmers’ capacity building.