Crop production in Türkiye: trends and driving variables

Abstract

Abstract Climate change and a rapidly increasing population boost the pressure on Türkiye’s cropping systems to increase crop production in order to meet rising food demand. It is unknown whether and in which direction trends and variability in harvested area and yield separately affect crop production in Türkiye. The objective of this study was to (1) quantify the long-term (2004–2020) trends of planting/harvested areas, yield and crop production for the 16 vital annual crops in Türkiye, (2) quantify the separate contribution of harvested area and yield on crop-specific production variability and (3) the potential of water and temperature-based remote sensing variables on capturing the variability of harvested areas and yield. The harvested area of the most grown crops (10 out of 16) such as wheat and barley showed a declining trend. However, the yield trend was increased for all of the study crops, which in some cases overcompensated for the decline in the harvested area on crop production. The harvested area showed a more robust explanatory power for production variability than yield except for the crops with higher breeding investments and subsidized by authorities such as wheat and sugar beet. The water-related remote sensing variables and combination of water and temperature variables largely explained the variability of the harvested area in Türkiye. In order to stabilize crop production in Türkiye, better and more efficient water management plans are crucial.