Persistent trends and inefficiencies in the Greek housing market: a sentiment based approach

Abstract

PurposeWe examine the aggregate price trend of the Greek housing market from a behavioral perspective.Design/methodology/approachWe construct a behavioral real estate sentiment index, based on relevant real estate search terms from Google Trends and websites, and examine its association with real estate price distributions and trends. By employing EGARCH(1,1) on the New Apartments Index data from the Bank of Greece, we capture real estate price volatility and asymmetric effects resulting from changes in the real estate search index. Enhancing robustness, macroeconomic variables are added to the mean equation. Additionally, a run test assesses the efficiency of the Greek housing market.FindingsThe results show a significant relationship between the Greek housing market and our real estate sentiment index; an increase (decrease) in search activity, indicating a growing interest in the real estate market, is strongly linked to potential increases (decreases) in real estate prices. These results remain robust across various estimation procedures and control variables. These findings underscore the influential role of real estate sentiment on the Greek housing market and highlight the importance of considering behavioral factors when analyzing and predicting trends in the housing market.Originality/valueTo investigate the behavioral effect on the Greek housing market, we construct our behavioral pattern indexes using Google search-based sentiment data from Google Trends. Additionally, we incorporate the Google Trend index as an explanatory variable in the EGARCH mean equation to evaluate the influence of online search behavior on the dynamics and prices of the Greek housing market.