Predicting investor funding behavior using crunchbase social network features

Abstract

Purpose – What makes investors tick? Largely counter-intuitive compared to the findings of most past research, this study explores the possibility that funding investors invest in companies based on social relationships, which could be positive or negative, similar or dissimilar. The purpose of this paper is to build a social network graph using data from CrunchBase, the largest public database with profiles about companies. The authors combine social network analysis with the study of investing behavior in order to explore how similarity between investors and companies affects investing behavior through social network analysis. Design/methodology/approach – This study crawls and analyzes data from CrunchBase and builds a social network graph which includes people, companies, social links and funding investment links. The problem is then formalized as a link (or relationship) prediction task in a social network to model and predict (across various machine learning methods and evaluation metrics) whether an investor will create a link to a company in the social network. Various link prediction techniques such as common neighbors, shortest path, Jaccard Coefficient and others are integrated to provide a holistic view of a social network and provide useful insights as to how a pair of nodes may be related (i.e., whether the investor will invest in the particular company at a time) within the social network. Findings – This study finds that funding investors are more likely to invest in a particular company if they have a stronger social relationship in terms of closeness, be it direct or indirect. At the same time, if investors and companies share too many common neighbors, investors are less likely to invest in such companies. Originality/value – The author’s study is among the first to use data from the largest public company profile database of CrunchBase as a social network for research purposes. The author ' s also identify certain social relationship factors that can help prescribe the investor funding behavior. Authors prediction strategy based on these factors and modeling it as a link prediction problem generally works well across the most prominent learning algorithms and perform well in terms of aggregate performance as well as individual industries. In other words, this study would like to encourage companies to focus on social relationship factors in addition to other factors when seeking external funding investments.