Welfare implications of intertemporal marketing margin manipulation

Abstract

Purpose In Indonesia, rubber is the most valuable export crop produced by small scale agriculture and plays a key role for inclusive economic development. This potential is likely to be not fully exploited. The observed concentration in the crumb rubber processing industry raises concerns about the distribution of export earnings along the value chain. Asymmetric price transmission (APT) is observed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates the price transmission between international prices and the factories’ purchasing prices on a daily basis. An auto-regressive asymmetric error correction model is estimated to find evidence for APT. In a subsequent step the rents that are redistributed from factories to farmers are calculated. The study then provides estimations of the size of this redistribution under different scenarios. Findings The results suggest that factories do indeed transmit prices asymmetrically, which has substantial welfare implications: around USD3 million are annually redistributed from farmers to factories. If the price transmission was only half as asymmetric as it is observed, the majority of this redistribution was re-diverted. Originality/value This study combines the approaches of non-parametric and parametric estimation techniques of estimating APT processes with a welfare perspective to quantify the distributional consequences of this intertemporal marketing margin manipulation. Especially the calculation of different scenarios of alternative price transmissions is a novelty. The data set of prices on such a disaggregated level and high frequency as required by this approach is also unique.