Modelling transition policy to a sustainable regional transport system

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to address the difficulty of implementing the European Union renewable energy policy in the transport sector. The authors describe a case study illustrating the capacity of the three Baltic States to meet the binding target of 10 per cent renewable energy in the transport sector by 2020. Design/methodology/approach – An excel-based mathematical model is developed and applied to evaluate the effect of a selected set of measures according to the sustainable transportation concept. Findings – The findings demonstrate that the projected renewable energy targets in the transport sector of the Baltic States cannot be achieved without unwavering political commitment towards the promotion of alternative fuel vehicles. Increasing the share of mandatory biofuel blends has a major effect, however, it is not enough to meet the 10 per cent goal. Other measures such as lower transport demand and mode shift are included but do not offer significant benefits under a realistic scenario. Practical implications – The findings are expected to serve as a basis to conduct further studies into sustainable transport development in the Baltic region. Moreover, policy makers may find these results useful in formulating a national position. Originality/value – The methodology and the findings reported in this study could be also used for analysing renewable transport policies in other European countries.