Political instability and its impact on economic growth: the case of Jordan

Abstract

Purpose Political instability may have far-reaching implications for economic performance. This paper aims to analyze the impact of political instability on economic growth by focusing on the case of Jordan, a small country located in the Middle East, which represents a highly political instable region. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is performed by regressing different indicators for internal and external political instability on economic growth for the period from 1980 to 2015 using the fully modified ordinary least squares approach. Findings The results point at a significant impact of political instability on the economic growth of the country in all the specifications considered; in particular, the analysis reveals a positive impact of external political instability indexed by border countries’ political instability and a negative impact of internal political instability, as proxied by the number of crimes and cabinet changes. Further, regarding the effect of the level of freedom, the authors find evidence for the so-called conflict perspective. Originality/value This paper is original and relevant for two main reasons. First, it adds to the debate on the effects of political instability on economic growth, and hereby, disentangles the effects of internal and external political instability. Second, it makes an important contribution by focusing on the case of Jordan, which has received little attention in the literature on political instability so far, even though political instability is a constant threat to the country.