Scenarios designed to improve decision making

Abstract

Scenarios that offer peeks at the future are intriguing, but critics complain that often they aren't much help in sorting out current decisions. The authors offer an alternative process that starts with a rough sketch of the main elements of several likely macroeconomic futures and then involves managers in the development of scenarios that focus on decision making. The intent is to clarify the options for operating decisions. In this case, a Latin American oil producer decides whether to buy a small and somewhat inefficient U. S. refinery.