A Survey of Recent Econometric Work on the NAIRU

Abstract

Compares Layard, Nickell and Jackman′s empirical model of UK unemployment with other time‐series econometric studies to assess whether the balance of evidence supports their analysis. Compares estimates of the effect on the UK NAIRU of factors such as benefits, union strength, mismatch, taxes, the exchange rate and hysteresis. Highlights and discusses differences of approach – e.g. to the exogeneity of the real exchange rate, the permanence of wedge effects and to hysteresis. Empirical results are found to be very sensitive to the precise way in which models are formulated and estimated. This suggests that any estimates of the level of the NAIRU are likely to be unreliable. Finds however, considerable empirical support for the kind of interactions between wages, prices and unemployment that Layard, Nickell and Jackman include in their model.