Risk analysis of belt and road infrastructure projects using integrated ISM-MICMAC approach

Abstract

Purpose The historic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an economic reform policy proposed by the Chinese Government that focuses on connectivity, improved collaboration and more robust economic relations. This paper aims to identify risks involved in BRI infrastructure project and establish a hierarchical relationship among them. Design/methodology/approach The methodology includes two phases, namely, identification of significant risks involved in the BRI project using systematic literature review and to develop a hierarchical relationship between the risks using interpretive structural modeling followed by the MICMAC analysis. Findings This work has identified the 11 risks of BRI infrastructure projects through academic literature. Based on the analysis, economic risk (R3), environmental risk (R1) and political risk (R2) are placed at level six in the ISM model and can significantly influence BRI infrastructure projects. These risks have high driving power, which exaggerates other risks. Research limitations/implications This study would help Engineering Procurements and Construction contractors in strategic decision-making select risk mitigation strategies and make robust and efficient infrastructure projects. However, additional factors may be considered, which are essential for the BRI infrastructure project. Originality/value This research’s novelty lies in the advancement of expertise in project risk assessment. This study contributes by identifying the most significant risks involved in the BRI project. The integrated ISM-MICMAC approach provides a macro picture of BRI project risks to formulate better strategies for its success.