Queue-based features for dynamic waiting time prediction in emergency department

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study is twofold: exploring new queue-based variables enabled by process mining and evaluating their impact on the accuracy of waiting time prediction. Such queue-based predictors that capture the current state of the emergency department (ED) may lead to a significant improvement in the accuracy of the prediction models. Design/methodology/approach Alongside the traditional variables influencing ED waiting time, the authors developed new queue-based predictors exploiting process mining. Process mining techniques allowed the authors to discover the actual patient-flow and derive information about the crowding level of the activities. The proposed predictors were evaluated using linear and nonlinear learning techniques. The authors used real data from an ED. Findings As expected, the main results show that integrating the set of predictors with queue-based variables significantly improves the accuracy of waiting time prediction. Specifically, mean square error values were reduced by about 22 and 23 per cent by applying linear and nonlinear learning techniques, respectively. Practical implications Accurate estimates of waiting time can enable the ED systems to prevent overcrowding e.g. improving the routing of patients in EDs and managing more efficiently the resources. Providing accurate waiting time information also can lead to decreased patients’ dissatisfaction and elopement. Originality/value The novelty of the study relies on the attempt to derive queue-based variables reporting the crowding level of the activities within the ED through process mining techniques. Such information is often unavailable or particularly difficult to extract automatically, due to the characteristics of ED processes.