Volatility transmission dynamics between energy and financial indices of emerging markets: a comparison between the subprime crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to analyze the volatility transmission between an energy stock index and a financial stock index in emerging markets during recent high instability periods. The study considers the impact of both the period under analysis and the data frequency on the direction and intensity of the contagion, as well as the effect of the potential spillovers on the risk measures. These questions still lack definitive answers and have become more relevant in a context of financially unsettling events such as COVID-19 crises.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs an extension of the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model that allows for the time-varying dependence relationship between the variables. This dependence is analyzed at daily, weekly and monthly basis using data from the Bloomberg platform on energy and stock market indices for emerging markets between 2001 and 2021.FindingsThe results for a sample spanning from 2001 to mid-2021 show bidirectional volatility transmission on a daily basis, whereas only evidence of volatility transmission from the financial to the energy exists for weekly and monthly frequencies. However, considering different subsamples of daily data, the authors only find volatility transmission from financial (energy) index to the energy (financial) during the Great Recession (COVID-19) as a consequence of the different source of the shock and transmission channels.Originality/valueThis study reveals that volatility transmission between energy and stocks in emerging markets has changed and presents a unidirectional pattern from energy to financial markets during the COVID-19 period in contrast to calm and the sub-prime crisis intervals. These results differ from previous studies, focused on global markets, that show bidirectional spillovers during this period.