Do characteristics of the regulatory content have different impact on the risk in the electricity sector?

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study is to determine if the Brazilian electricity sector is differently affected by the characteristics of the content in the regulatory legislation. Design/methodology/approach For better robustness of the research, the authors analyzed the period from 1995 to 2013, totaling 4,510 observations. To this end, the selection of regulatory legislation was conducted through Markov regime switching. To identify the characteristics of profile and intensity of regulatory content in each legislation, we applied the content analysis technique. Findings The main findings of this study position this research in the vanguard regarding other research in the area by showing that all regulatory measures whose characteristics denote market profile of strong and medium intensity affect the risk of electric utilities in Brazil. As contribution from this research, it can be hypothesized that for provisional measures/laws events, the profile and intensity of regulatory content are relevant and have different impact on the risk of stocks and, therefore, should be considered in the design and development of public policies. Originality/value The paper investigates by means of content analysis, the profile and intensity characteristics of the content present in the regulatory legislation and to present the impact of these characteristics on the risk of the electric energy Sector in Brazil. The research results showed that it is not all regulatory events that impact the stock market. Therefore, regulatory risk estimates must consider the intensity and scope of each legislation, given that legislation with a higher regulatory content that seeks to modify the sector’s operating rules more deeply tends to have a greater impact on the risk of companies that operate in regulated sectors. Therefore, the paper shows originality and evolution for the researchers in the area, with new and significant information.