Advancements and forecasts of electronic tax return and informational filings in the US

Abstract

Purpose The US Congress set the original goal that 80 per cent of all tax returns should to be filed electronically for the 2007 tax year. Unfortunately, only 70 per cent of the total returns were electronically filed (e-filed) in 2017. This paper aims to examine the longitudinal progress of total tax returns e-filed by individuals, businesses and “other” categories for the period from 2004 to 2017 and projects a timeline to attain the goal. Design/methodology/approach A comprehensive computation and analysis were performed for the volume, ratios and growth of e-filing for the major types of return. A parallel analysis was performed for the business categories. Applying various time series and exponential smoothing forecasting models, the authors projected major return e-filings for the forecast horizons from 2018 to 2025. Findings First, individual tax returns filed electronically have attained the target goal of 80 per cent since 2012, the extended deadline by Congress, so have corporations and partnerships for Fiscal Year 2017. Second, both the e-file volume and e-file rate for the grand total, individuals and businesses exhibit monotonically increasing trends over the sample period. Third, of the grand e-filings, individual returns constitute the vast majority of 84 per cent, while business e-files are less than 12 per cent. Originality/value This study is a holistic and comprehensive analysis of the adoption of e-filing in the USA. From the longitudinal analysis and the variety of forecasting models applied, the results show that the focus should be on the employment tax e-file as it stands at only 41 per cent for 2017 due to few mandates, while the returns make up 65 per cent of total business returns. The authors projected that the grand total e-filing will attain the Congressional goal of 80 per cent by 2020 along with proposed strategies and recommendations.