Testing for a common Phillips curve in common monetary area of Southern Africa

Abstract

PurposeThis paper sets out to investigate whether the four members of the common monetary area (CMA) regime experience similar inflation-unemployment dynamics as explained by the Phillips Curve phenomenon.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a combination of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) and Copula based marginal regression techniques to investigate existence of a common Phillips curve (PC) between members of the CMA. Model estimation was done using country specific annual time series data for inflation, unemployment and imports spanning from 1980 to 2014.FindingsWe find evidence of contemporaneous correlation between the residuals of individual CMA PC equations and a statistically significant trade-off between inflation and unemployment for all CMA countries. Wald test results of cross-equation restrictions reveal a 9.94% chance of a common unemployment coefficient for CMA countries.Originality/valueTogether, the results of the SUR and Gaussian Copula techniques provide mixed and inconclusive evidence to support the existence of a common PC among CMA member states. This study is the first of its kind in examining this phenomenon for currency board regimes like CMA, and one of the very few among emerging market economies.