Managing uncertainties in fault avoidance zone of urban areas: a case study of Karaj, Iran

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to develop the application of the strategic choice approach (SCA) in Karaj City (Iran) as the case study for facilitating the decision-making process concerning uncertainties associated with determining fault trace, fault buffer zone and fault setback, as well as inherent uncertainties related to urban issues – known as wicked problems – which make a clear definition unachievable for them. Design/methodology/approach The SCA was recycled in this study to manage uncertain situations in planning. It is designed to deal with problems caused by uncertainty, insufficient knowledge and unpredictable policy outcomes. In combination with the risk-based planning approach, the paper proposes a new model to deal with uncertainty and hazard risk at the same time. Findings The results indicated that such decision-making tools are helpful for urban planners who impose changes in the fault zone to save lives and properties where the process seems problematic and ambiguous. Further analysis from the SCA development not only shows that urban planning restrictions should be applied gradually and in pace with the completion of fault displacement geological data but also reveals that defining the implementation process and institutional structure is as important as the preparation of binding fault zoning documents. Originality/value The paper will push forward global research and practice because the results can be generalized for use in other earthquake-prone countries, as the considerations and obstacles have a universal character and more specifically because many earthquake-prone countries have not started to define fault avoidance zone restrictions up to now.