Fiscal resilience of Russia's regions in the face of COVID-19

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of the study was to analyze how COVID-19 pandemic affects regional budgets and regional fiscal resilience in Russia.Design/methodology/approachThe research article is structured as follows. Based on the official data from the Ministry of Finance, the Federal Treasure and the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, first, the state of Russian regional budgets before and under COVID-19 is analyzed. Second, due to the increase of regional spending commitments under pandemic the regional debt dependence is reviewed. Third, anticrisis fiscal measures which have been taken to combat the negative impact of COVID-19 are discussed.FindingsIn general, 2020 may be the most difficult for regional budgets, although the results of the first quarter do not show such tension. However, the impact of COVID-19 on budget indicators is ambiguous because the economic crisis of 2020 is dual, including the crisis in the oil markets. The pandemic has become a unique global phenomenon, the effect of which is difficult to identify and interpret outside of the economic aspects of life.Originality/valueThe value of the article is based on the overview of the state of regional budgets before and under COVID-19, on the analysis of how pandemic affects fiscal resilience of the regional budgets and on the forecast of how serious the volume of lost revenues are going to be.