Factors determining housing prices: empirical evidence from a developing country’s Pakistan

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to explore empirically the impact of various factors/determinants on housing prices at the country level as well as in Lahore, the most populous metropolitan city of the most populous province Punjab, Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach This study uses monthly data ranging from 2013M1 to 2020M1 on variables used in the study. Based on the stationarity results, the method of robust least square is used as an estimation technique. The validity of initial results is also authenticated by canonical cointegration regression. Findings The empirical result reveals that all included variables significantly affect housing prices both at country level as well as in Lahore. This study found negative impact of regressor age, real exchange rate and urbanization on housing prices, whereas the positive impact of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, foreign remittances, broad money and real interest rate on housing prices in the case of Pakistan was found. On the other hand, results unveiled the negative impact of regressor age (proportion of population aged between 15 and 64), real exchange rate and urbanization on housing prices, whereas the positive impact of GDP per capita, foreign remittances, broad money and real interest rate on housing prices in Lahore metropolitan city was unveiled. Originality/value Based on the extant literature survey, this is a more holistic study of its kind that uncovers the macroeconomic determinants by considering the demand side, supply side and demographic factors of escalated housing prices in Pakistan, so that proper policies can be adopted to keep the housing sector stable. Empirical findings are helpful to acquire an enhanced understanding of how the housing price is determined and form a base for government to tackle the housing affordability problem.